The United States is the world's third largest cotton producer and the world's largest cotton exporter. In the year 2018 / 19, US cotton production is expected to be 4.05 million tons and exports are 3.27 million tons. Cotton exports account for about 36 percent of the world's total cotton exports.
In terms of output, Texas, one of the major production areas of 18th-19, has suffered a long drought since April. The cumulative precipitation is only about 77% of the normal level. Two strong hurricanes (Florence and Michael) hit the southeast in September-October and affected the southeast cotton region. The U.S. cotton production has shrunk significantly, with 18 / 19 production expected to be about 4.05 million tons, down about 11 percent from a year earlier.
Judging from the export situation, as a result of the Sino-US trade friction, China imposed an additional tariff of 25% on American cotton, which led to a sharp decline in the signing of cotton exports, and the original China's contract was canceled continuously. As of December 6, China had signed up to export 3.29 million bales, compared with the same period last year, with a reduction of 30 points, which is lower than the previous five years in the same period of 15.
India, the world's first-largest cotton-producing country and the second-largest cotton-exporting country, has an important impact on the world's cotton prices.
In the last two years, the Indian cotton bollworm has been hit by the red cotton bollworm, which has led to the production of cotton in the Indian cotton.
In 2018, the Indian government raised the minimum support price of cotton MSP by about 26-28%, with the minimum support price of long-staple cotton increasing by 26.16% to 5450 rupees per litre. Medium wool rose by 28% to 5150 rupees per cum. Greatly stabilized the Mahalat, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh cotton conversion rate of relatively high rates of cotton planting sentiment. And India raised MSP prices also supported the overall cotton market prices. High cotton prices have also led to losses for the downstream spinning industry in India State, at present, India's yarn profits are at the lower level of the calendar year.
Judging from the global balance of supply and demand, the global cotton supply and demand pattern has been in the stock accumulation stage of oversupply for five consecutive years since 10 / 11. From 15 / 16, it began to change into a demand gap and entered a destocking cycle. The ratio of inventory consumption to consumption is declining year by year. According to the latest December USDA data, global production fell by 1.08 million tons in 1819, mainly due to the drought in Texas, one of the main producers in the United States, which cut production by 510000 tons, and by 330000 tons in India due to a concentrated outbreak of cotton bollworms. But under the influence of the increase of planting area and the favorable weather, the output increased by 390000 tons. China is a slight decrease of about 110000 tons. As a result of international trade friction, overall consumption growth has shrunk significantly. The 18th-19 forecast for consumption is only 540000 tonnes higher than the previous year, falling to less than 1 percent from 3-6 percent in the previous two years, and is likely to decline later. As a result, the gap between 18 / 19 production and demand is about 1.58 million tons, but there are still nearly 16 million tons of closing inventory, and the overall trend of destocking is slow.
