From the domestic cotton supply and demand balance table, in recent years in the destocking cycle, the national inventory from about 12 million tons, at present only about 2.7 million tons, can only maintain a year of dumping reserves. In this case, the 2019 market will depend on the following factors.
1. Cotton are as a crop depends on the day to eat, unless there is a clear weather disaster resulting in a major reduction, or according to the current social stocks or warehouse receipts inventory, 2019 supply is still relatively sufficient.
2. Whether or not there is a new policy for the National Reserve. First, the National Reserve is still left with 2.7 million tons of stock, and in recent years it has basically begun to dump its stock in March. Assuming that the current social inventory is large, the market supply will be tight for the time being. Second, because the national reserve stocks are not high, whether there is the possibility of collecting reserves, if domestic cotton then domestic stocks will be converted into non-mobile national stocks, the pressure will be reduced. If the storage of imported cotton, then the reserve gap logic will not exist, of course, and will also have some support for international cotton prices.
3. Cotton has a strong financial attribute, and the most important thing is that the domestic and even the entire global economic problems will also have a crucial impact on the cotton market in 2019.At present, the global economy is facing downward pressure. Whether or not the deterioration or improvement after 2019, it also has a significant impact on the cotton market.
1. It has good moisture absorption and air permeability, and it is comfortable to wear.
2. It is soft hand, soft luster and simple.
3. It has good heat preservation and good wearability.
4. It has good dyeing, bright color and complete chromatography, but not good color fastness.
5. Concentrated alkali treatment can make the fiber section round in fabric, improving the luster of fabric.
6. The light resistance is better, but long exposure will cause fading and strength decrease.
7. The elasticity is poor, the fold is easy to produce and the crease is not easy to recover.
8. The pure cotton fabric is easy to become moldy and deteriorate, but it is resistant to insects and moths.
According to the global cotton supply and demand balance, the overall cotton production is in a destocking cycle. The drought in India and Texas, the main U.S. region, and two major hurricanes have affected the southeast cotton region this year, resulting in a decline in overall production this year. The most likely future increase in global production is India, where yields are relatively low, such as a relatively large increase after improved planting technology. As for the 2019 operation, the impact of the current Sino-US trade war has led to a global economic downturn. Recently, India, Vietnam, and other places have strong cotton prices upstream, and the downstream cotton yarn is facing losses. According to the more difficult sales, cotton textile enterprises are faced with problems, and the latter will be faced with a revised market.
For this year, in order to improve the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, the Indian government has greatly increased the price of MSP, which is similar to China's unlimited reserve of 20400 yuan / ton in 2012-2013 when the global cotton market fell. The price of Indian cotton in the international market is at a high level.
