Since June 2018, global cotton prices have been under pressure due to the overall weakening of global cotton prices. Compared with 2017 / 18, the global supply of long-staple cotton has increased significantly this year. Since the fourth quarter of 2018, long-staple cotton consumption has also begun to weaken, and this year's production of long-staple cotton may exceed consumption of 290000 bales.
India is the largest consumer of long-staple cotton, consuming close to 750000 bales of cotton this year. China produces about 275000 bales of long-staple cotton, and consumption is expected to be 690000 bales, accounting for about 1 / 3 of global consumption. Egypt produces 500000 bales of long-staple cotton, of which Giza 94 and Giza 86, the US's main competitors, produce more than 410000 bales.
This year, India was Egypt's biggest buyer of long wool cotton. So far, India has imported 169600 bales of American pimp cotton this year, up from 152800 bales a year earlier.
Last week, Indian cotton yarn prices stabilized, and blended yarn prices fell slightly. The depreciation of the rupee and the appreciation of the renminbi could stimulate cotton yarn exports to China.
Supported by the CCI acquisition, cotton prices in India have stopped falling and remained high, stabilizing in the vicinity of MSP as a whole. Textile mills are in strong demand for imported cotton, and the US agriculture counselors expect India will use more cotton this year, so cotton production will continue to increase.
Indian cotton yarn exports largely depend on changes in cotton prices and domestic currency exchange rates. Affected by the rebound in the Indian rupee exchange rate in December 2018, Indian cotton yarn exports fell sharply, by more than 20 percent year-on-year, and by 45 percent to China. Exports to Pakistan fell 28% and exports to Bangladesh increased.
Indian cotton yarn exports rose 10.6 percent year-on-year in 2018 as exports performed well when the rupee fell in the first half of last year. A rebound in the yuan and another fall in the Indian rupee are expected to boost India's cotton yarn exports to China. The slowdown in China's economic growth and the decline in garment exports have affected demand for cotton yarn imports.
Due to the tension between India and Pakistan, Indian consignment cotton exports to Pakistan will be significantly reduced in the near future. By contrast, China has shipped about 400000 bales of Indian cotton (170kg) over the past 10 days and a further 100000 bales in the near future. The Indian Cotton Association says China will begin to increase its purchases as China's reserves of cotton fall.
It is reported that Pakistan has signed a contract to import 800000 bales of Indian cotton and has shipped 650000 bales. Pakistan is expected to import about 1 million bales of Indian cotton this fiscal year. Some exporters believe that Indian cotton can bypass Dubai and Singapore to Pakistani ports, so Indian cotton exports to Pakistan will not stop.
India has shipped 3.2 million bales of cotton so far this year and exports are expected to reach 500-5.5 million bales. In addition to Pakistan, China, Indian cotton exports to Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh.
